I see you have another comment clarifying the question regarding the Scientist Conflict, so I’ll start here with the Mouse Hazard. Personally, I would call this out as a Wilderness Hazard, but let’s not worry about that.
The patrol must rally the town to respond in an organized way; Orator is a good candidate for that intent. If it rolls out cowards, I’d go for the juicy Mouse Twist (heads up, this is why I would revise the flooding to be a Wilderness Hazard) of Tuk the bandit with an entourage looting and otherwise exploiting the scenario. Personally, I have Tuk focused on helping mice out, taking them from town with their belongings, and administratively packing his bandit encampment with new residents, and stuffing his encampment treasury with an inventory of pragmatic new assets, but I view bandits in a bit different way than perhaps the typical understanding of the term.
It would still be in the GM Turn, requiring the patrol to leave the task of rallying and managing via Orator. The patrol could choose how to respond, but I would suspect a few optional courses of action to arise.
(a) The town leadership knows they’ve failed to resolve this emergency, and see that Tuk is about to lead away critical artisans, merchants, laborers, and other residents that will be far more loyal to Tuk than to Lonepine; they pressure the patrol to stop the Lonepine residents from relocating (possibly calling for a forceful expulsion of Tuk). This calls for the patrol to agree or disagree and stand for that decision. If they agree, they had better suggest how they will prevent Tuk from relocating Lonepine’s finest and deter loyalty from being placed in Tuk’s banditry/leadership. If they disagree, they had better suggest to the leaders how they can properly support Tuk and get behind him with full loyalty as well as commending Tuk’s leading bravado.
(b) A patrol mate who considers Tuk an enemy sees how much this will cost the Lonepine residents and will deter townies from returning to full-time residency, so that patrol mate needs to get fellow patrol members to join in preventing Tuk from relocating residents or looting the town of non-perishable goods. This calls a cloakmouse to stand up among the patrol laying their claims against Tuk and supporting such arguments with real or perceived evidence of bad conduct or the ills of banditry.
© A patrol mate who considers Tuk a friend sees how much this will serve the Lonepine residents and will secure livelihoods and goods for townies about to leave residency, so that patrol mate needs to get fellow patrol members to join in assisting Tuk to evacuate residents and salvaging the town of non-perishable goods. This calls a cloakmouse to stand up among the patrol laying their claims in favor of Tuk and supporting such arguments with real or perceived evidence of good conduct or the joys of banditry.
Now, there may be other routes to take that scene, but I think that’s about where I would aim. I would aim for a scene about the affairs of mice in regimented towns or enjoying the liberty of banditry.
I would expect the patrol should act promptly, but that Lonepine leadership can be used as a critical spur for the patrol to act in favor of the status quo in the request to drive off Tuk and the entourage. If the patrol takes up no action, as though it is just a neat element of the scene to see, I’d let it slide, but the status quo would be destroyed. Tuk and the entourage of bandits would evacuate and relocate those mice who they truly believe can serve the bandit camp and assist in relocating their personal things and would loot or salvage any other valuable goods for use in the bandit camp. If the patrol does nothing, Tuk gains while the Lonepine leaders are left with the less-desirable residents and the task of organizing an evacuation.
At a later time, Lonepine will falter all the more while the bandit camp’s and Tuk’s might grows.
If the patrol suggests a split, the issue with Tuk is the scene I would play out and roll dice over. The other scene would not roll dice and would go about as badly as I want to describe depending on the patrol mates who split (based on stats and rank) as well as how the other patrol mates fare in dealing with Tuk and the entourage. I would discourage the players from attempting a split-screen endeavor to manage two tasks by splitting the patrol mates. One side simply would not be allowed to roll dice, and would still not be able to participate as Helpers in the ensuing scene with Tuk. It’s a costly error to split the patrol.
Following the decisions regarding the Twist, then they can head out to consider what to do about the beavers and/or the dam.